Why 75% of New Item Launches Fail (And What the Other 25% Do Differently)

New item launches succeed 15% to 25% of the time. On the latest Conversations on Retail Podcast, Tom McDonald joined Marc Yount and Henry Ho to break down why that number is so low and what separates launches that work from ones that don't.

Tom is VP of Walmart and Sam's Club for Bayer Consumer Health. He spent nearly 30 years at P&G launching Tide Pods, Downy Unstoppables, Febreze, and Swiffer, then ran the Category Management Association before joining Bayer seven years ago, where he now leads five to six launches a year, including MiraFAST.

The old launch model ran on TV, distribution, and one shot at getting it right. 

Manufacturers pushed for 80% ACV distribution fast, backed by TV commercials and Sunday paper coupons. Retailers reset shelves once a year, so manufacturers built nine months of inventory ahead of launch and hoped it sold through.

E-commerce became the new test market. 

Retailer mod dates are now staggered by channel. Amazon, Walmart, and Target have become the proving ground regional test markets used to be. Tom pointed to Smarty Pants and Ghost testing price points and subscribe-and-save levels on Amazon before rolling out elsewhere.

What hasn't changed: the product has to meet a real need, not just showcase a technology. 

Tom drew a line between building around an unmet shopper need and building around a technology, then packaging it after the fact. MiraFAST solved a specific problem, fast, reliable relief while traveling, which he named as the single most consistent driver of success across his career.

Some launches exist to defend share, not grow it. 

Tide Pods is his example. P&G knew pod competitors were coming, so skipping pod development meant exiting the category over time. Defensive launches get judged on staying relevant, not incremental growth.

Distribution planning has to account for the omnichannel shelf, not just the physical one. 

Henry Ho noted that winning shelf placement no longer guarantees success. Shoppers research through search, ratings, and reviews before or instead of visiting a store. Content scores and reviews have to be ready on day one alongside the physical shelf set.

Launching well is a cross-functional effort, and the handoffs are where launches die. 

Sales, demand planning, product supply, shopper insights, and marketing all have to hit their marks on schedule. Tom has seen strong products fail because digital assets weren't ready until month two or three.

Smaller, PE-backed brands operate on a different economic model, but the same launch logic applies. 

Poppi, Olipop, and Dude Wipes move faster than P&G's old 10 to 15 year runway for Febreze or Swiffer, but the same fundamentals, meeting a real need and executing on time, still decide who succeeds.

You are largely who you are at 13 weeks. 

A product's sales trajectory is largely set within the first 13 weeks, sometimes stretching to 26 weeks with staggered retailer mod dates. Marketing spend, in-stock rates, and content have to be right from day one, because there's rarely a second act to fix a slow start.

The tactics that guarantee a failed launch. 

Tom's list: build around technology instead of shopper needs, launch without marketing materials or reviews ready, miss retailer mod timing, or pull back marketing spend when velocity falls short instead of investing further.

The bottom line. 

The mechanics of winning haven't changed: solve a real shopper problem, plan distribution deliberately, execute marketing and shelf presence on time. What's changed is the number of channels that execution now spans, including AI agents that recommend products directly to shoppers. Storesight gives CPG teams visibility into that execution in real time, across every store and channel a launch depends on.